Tornado diagram

Risk impact ranked for budget conversations.

What you are looking at

Each bar is a risk sorted by total impact range — widest at the top, narrowest at the bottom. Red bars extend left from the base estimate showing downside cost impact. Green bars extend right showing upside savings potential. The purple centre line is your base estimate. The simulator tab lets you drag each risk's downside and watch contingency requirement and total exposure recalculate live. The risk register shows the full ranked list with category badges.

What most PMs miss

The tornado diagram is built once for the business case and never revisited. The most valuable use is mid-project when you know more — early estimates are wide, later estimates are precise. Re-run the tornado at 25%, 50% and 75% completion to check whether your contingency reserve is still adequate or whether you need to escalate to the sponsor.

The expert tip

In a budget conversation, do not lead with the total exposure number — it triggers a defensive reaction. Instead point to the top three bars and say: these three risks account for seventy percent of our contingency requirement. If we mitigate just these, our reserve drops from X to Y. Run that scenario live in the room using the simulator. A sponsor who sees the number change as you explain the mitigation is far more likely to approve targeted contingency than one who receives a static spreadsheet.